Shutdown Chuck’s average favorability at RealClearPolling sits at a brutal -20.4. You’d have to dig back an entire year to find a single poll where his net negatives were even in the single digits. That’s not just bad — that’s political life support.

In comparison, here are other net favorability ratings that RCP is tracking:

• Donald Trump: -7.5
• J.D. Vance: -4.6
• Mike Johnson: -5.8
• Hakeem Jeffries: -6.2
• John Thune: -6.6

Here’s another telling data point that puts things in perspective. For leaders like Speaker Johnson, Senator Thune, and Hakeem Jeffries, a lot of Americans simply haven’t made up their minds yet. In Thune’s case — understandable, since he’s relatively new to his leadership role — most respondents don’t view him favorably or unfavorably. His aggregate rating sits at 20.7% favorable to 27.3% unfavorable, and in the latest RMG poll, he actually notched a +4 net favorable at 24/20.

Now compare that to Chuck Schumer. His aggregate average is 27.2% favorable to 47.6% unfavorable — an abysmal gap. In fact, his unfavorable rating is worse than every other major political figure tracked by RealClearPolitics except Donald Trump. The difference? Trump’s numbers are far stronger overall, sitting at 44.0/51.5, with a recent +4.0 net positive from the Big Data Poll.

And keep in mind — all this data came before the total collapse of the Schumer Shutdown. Even CNN data cruncher Harry Enten’s Pew Research numbers from late September, which he cited during a segment this morning, showed Schumer’s standing was already in the basement. That was before his latest stunt blew up in his face:

“I think the word of the day is terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, to quote another Charles, Charles Barkley, when it comes to Chuck Schumer. Look at this, least popular Dem Senate leader ever! I looked at all of the polls going all the way back since 1985. The one who was the lowest rating among Democrats is, in fact, Chuck Schumer. Look at this, he’s underwater with Democrats! His own party, he’s underwater! He’s at minus four points. That makes him the least popular guy for a Dem Senate leader going all the way back since the mid-1980s at least!” he answered, before going on to observe that Democratic voters are looking for a “fighter.”

[Host Sara] Sidner followed up by asking who might be well-suited to challenge Schumer when he’s next up for reelection in 2028.

Enten then dropped another bombshell: If AOC decides to primary Schumer, she’ll whip his behind:

You see this opening slide here and you see, of course, that Chuck Schumer is underwater with Democrats nationally. But of course the ultimate way to get Chuck Schumer out of office is to beat him in New York State. So how do New York State Democrats feel about Chuck Schumer? And take a look here, the net favorable among New York Democrats.

Chuck Schumer is above water with the Democrats in his home state, but just by 16 points, look at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez running way ahead. If she decides to challenge Chuck Schumer come 2028, she’s got a real leg up on the competition. I dare say at this point she would be the favorite to beat him, which would be something that would just blow my mind, even just a few years ago, given that Chuck Schumer, of course, is a New York born-and-bred type of guy.

Anyone want to bet those numbers haven’t gotten any better in the seven weeks since Pew ran that survey? Schumer was already underwater with his own party — pulling just 35% favorable to 39% unfavorable among Democrats. That’s brutal.

And now, after the total implosion of the Schumer Shutdown, those trendlines aren’t just continuing — they’re accelerating. Every sign points to a Democrat base losing patience with a leader who’s long past his expiration date:

And this isn’t happening in a vacuum. The Democratic Party’s base is eating itself alive. They demand radical “resistance,” but the second it blows up in their faces, they turn on the very people who tried to deliver it. It’s a never-ending purity spiral.

As Semafor’s Dave Weigel and Burgess Everett pointed out, the election results from barely a week ago have already been shoved aside — forgotten in the chaos of an all-out civil war brewing inside the Democratic Party:

The Democratic crackup that’s now underway in Washington is distracting the party from a series of brutal fights just ahead that will culminate in next year’s midterms.

Democrats have one month to figure out how they want to handle a Senate vote on expiring health care tax credits; then they’ll face another shutdown deadline on Jan. 30. After that comes a round of House and Senate primaries — often featuring agitator candidates eager for a change in leadership and a more aggressive approach to President Donald Trump.

With all the challenges ahead, Democrats are descending into bitter clashes whose fault lines were foreseeable from the moment the government shut down. The shutdown’s challenges to Senate Democratic unity, in particular, were immense: Several members of Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s caucus didn’t want to start a fight over health care subsidies at all. Others only wanted to hold out for a couple of weeks.

Instead, they kept at it throughout the longest shutdown in US history. So when the bare minimum of eight Democratic senators split off, advancing a shutdown-ending deal that’s set to clear the Senate later Monday, the rest of the party erupted in fury, from coast to coast.

The Democratic crackup isn’t some sideshow — it’s the direct result of their own terrible choices. They picked the wrong fights, staked everything on radical ground, and did it all with zero leverage. Failure wasn’t just possible; it was inevitable. And now, instead of learning from it, they’re doubling down, chasing even more extreme battles that will only end in bigger disasters.

Chuck Schumer is stuck in the middle of this mess, desperately trying to appease the radicals who are clawing for control of the Democratic Party — and let’s be honest, their goals are anything but democratic.