Chuck Schumer (D-NY) might be the Senate’s top Democrat, but a new poll suggests his grip on power is slipping fast.

A survey conducted by Data for Progress shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading Schumer by a whopping 19 points in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary matchup. While the longtime New York senator still holds the title of Majority Leader, his popularity among the party’s base appears to be cratering.

Between March 26 and 31, 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York were asked who they would support in a Schumer vs. AOC primary. The results: 55% for Ocasio-Cortez, just 36% for Schumer.

Those numbers weren’t an outlier either — the poll found Schumer had the highest disapproval rating of any Democratic figure tested. By contrast, Ocasio-Cortez had one of the highest favorables, trailing only Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

The slide appears to come at a politically perilous moment. Schumer recently joined Senate Republicans in supporting a spending bill negotiated with President Trump, drawing heat from progressives who believe Democrats need to mount a more aggressive opposition to the president’s political momentum.

A staggering 84% of respondents said Democrats in Washington are not doing enough to stand up to Trump and the MAGA movement. That’s not just a warning shot — it’s a full-blown alarm bell for establishment Democrats.

Ocasio-Cortez’s support cuts across virtually every major demographic. She holds a 50-point lead among voters under 45, an 8-point lead among those 45 and older, and beats Schumer among white, Black, and Latino voters.

She also outperforms him across gender and education levels. Schumer’s only edge is self-identified moderates. Polling respondents were shown biographical statements about both candidates.

Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability surged from +59 to +69 after voters read about her background, 2018 primary victory, and policy advocacy. Schumer’s favorability also climbed — from +26 to +47 — but it wasn’t enough to change the head-to-head numbers.

Even after being presented with statements critical of both candidates, the numbers barely budged. A message framing AOC as a polarizing, attention-seeking figure only concerned 14% of voters.

Meanwhile, 33% found the critique of Schumer — as a career politician too cozy with corporations and willing to align with MAGA Republicans — “very concerning.” And that’s the problem for Schumer.

Despite decades of service, seniority, and institutional clout, many Democratic voters now see him as the past — and they’re looking to Ocasio-Cortez as the future. Whether she decides to run remains to be seen. But if she does, this poll suggests the 2028 race won’t be close.

“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.