A new survey has put a long Democratic streak in Oregon’s governor’s race in jeopardy just weeks before voters head to the polls. Republican Christine Drazan narrowly leads incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek in their rematch of the 2022 contest.
According to a poll commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting, Drazan holds 47% to Kotek’s 46% after undecided voters were pressed, with Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith at 3% and 4% still undecided. The one-point edge falls inside the survey’s 3.24-point margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.
Before undecided voters were pressed, Drazan led 46% to 44%, with Smith at 3% and 8% undecided. DHM Research surveyed 915 likely voters between September 17 and 27 by telephone and text-linked online forms.
The election is set for November 3, leaving little time for either campaign to shift a closely divided electorate. A Drazan win would make her Oregon’s first Republican governor since Victor Atiyeh left office in 1987 after serving from 1979 to 1987.
Oregon has voted reliably Democratic in presidential races for decades. No Republican presidential nominee has carried the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump there 55% to 41% in 2024.
That history explains why a tied governor’s race is drawing attention even in a tough national climate for Republicans. It also means a narrow poll lead should not be treated as a prediction of victory—Oregon Republicans have seen that danger before in this exact matchup.