That vote alienated many Democratic and independent voters who had previously supported Collins based on her reputation for moderation and women’s rights advocacy. The political repercussions were evident in her 2020 reelection campaign, where she faced the toughest challenge of her career against Democratic former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon.

Despite polls showing Gideon with consistent leads throughout much of the campaign, Collins ultimately prevailed with 51% of the vote—a dramatically reduced margin compared to her previous victories but still a notable achievement in a difficult electoral environment. The race became the most expensive in Maine history, with over $200 million spent by both campaigns and outside groups, reflecting the national significance of Collins’ seat as Democrats sought to regain Senate control.
Collins’ Current Position and Reelection Intentions

Despite the challenging political climate and the new poll showing widespread desire for her retirement, Collins has been clear about her intentions to seek another term. In a November interview with The Washington Examiner, she stated: “I’m focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run.”

As a senior member of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, Collins wields significant influence over federal spending decisions, particularly those affecting her home state. This position allows her to deliver tangible benefits to Maine, which has historically been an important factor in her electoral success despite the state’s overall Democratic lean in national politics.

Collins would be 74 years old at the time of the 2026 election and 80 by the end of another six-year term, placing her well within the age range of many current senators. While age alone is unlikely to be a determining factor in her decision-making process, the clear public preference for retirement revealed by the poll may prompt reconsideration of her political future, particularly given the changing nature of Republican politics in the Trump era.
The Changing Political Landscape in Maine

Maine’s political landscape has evolved significantly in recent years, reflecting broader national trends while maintaining distinctive local characteristics. The state has a long tradition of political independence, having elected moderates from both parties along with true independents like current Senator Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats despite his official independent status.

In presidential politics, Maine has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by 7 percentage points in the 2024 election, just 2 points shy of President Joe Biden’s margin in 2020. This relative stability in Maine’s presidential voting pattern is notable considering the national environment shifted approximately 6 points toward Republicans between the two elections.

Meanwhile, Senator King easily won reelection in 2024, demonstrating the continued viability of his independent, moderate-left approach in the state. The race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—a more rural and conservative region that supported Trump—remains unresolved, with Democratic Representative Jared Golden holding a narrow lead in ongoing vote counting.

These results paint a picture of a state that remains receptive to moderate candidates who can appeal across party lines but has become increasingly challenging territory for Republicans identified with the national party’s more conservative wing. Collins has historically succeeded by maintaining sufficient distance from national Republican positions to win over independents and moderate Democrats, but that strategy has become more difficult to execute in an era of heightened polarization.
Maine’s Ranked-Choice Voting System and Its Implications

A crucial factor in any analysis of Collins’ electoral prospects is Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference rather than selecting just one. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated, and their supporters’ second-choice votes are redistributed. This process continues until a candidate achieves a majority.

This system, implemented for federal elections in Maine beginning in 2018, creates a particular challenge for candidates who generate strong opposition from a majority of voters even if they maintain a loyal base of support. Collins narrowly avoided having ranked-choice tabulations come into play in 2020 by securing just over 50% of first-choice votes.

Political analysts suggest that the ranked-choice system could prove decisive in 2026 if Democrats manage to hold Collins below the 50% threshold. In such a scenario, second-choice preferences would likely favor a Democratic or independent challenger over Collins, potentially leading to her defeat even if she plurality of first-choice votes.

The ranked-choice system tends to favor candidates with broad appeal across the political spectrum—historically a Collins strength. However, if the sentiment expressed in the recent poll holds through 2026, with majorities of voters across party lines preferring her retirement, the system could become a significant liability for the incumbent senator.
National Implications for Senate Control

Collins’ decision about running for reelection has implications far beyond Maine’s borders, as it could significantly impact the battle for control of the U.S. Senate in 2026. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the chamber, but the 2026 electoral map presents a challenging landscape for Democrats seeking to regain control.

Most of the competitive Senate seats up for election in 2026 are currently held by Democrats, providing few obvious pickup opportunities for the party. Maine represents one of the Democrats’ clearest potential targets, particularly if Collins chooses to retire or if her standing with voters continues to erode.

Without Collins on the ballot, Republicans would face a significant challenge holding the seat in a state that has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates. A competitive primary could potentially produce a nominee less able to appeal to the moderate and independent voters necessary for Republican success in Maine.

Beyond Maine, Democrats’ best chance to flip a Republican seat likely comes in North Carolina, where Senator Thom Tillis will be up for reelection. However, Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008, underscoring the difficult nature of the 2026 map for the party.

Other potential Democratic targets include Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio (which will hold a special election), but all of these states supported Trump by double-digit margins in 2024, indicating the uphill battle Democrats face in these contests. This challenging map makes Maine an especially critical battleground if Democrats hope to recapture Senate control.
Collins’ Role in the Trump Presidency and Beyond

Collins’ relationship with former President Donald Trump—now President-elect following his 2024 victory—has been complex and evolving. During Trump’s first term, she emerged as one of the few Republican senators willing to occasionally break with the administration on high-profile issues, including her vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act in 2017, which helped preserve the healthcare law.

However, she supported other key Trump priorities, including the 2017 tax cuts and the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. Her vote for Kavanaugh proved particularly costly politically, alienating many moderate and Democratic voters who had previously supported her.

Collins did not endorse Trump in either the 2016 or 2020 elections, and she voted to convict him in his second impeachment trial following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. These positions have created tension with the Trump-aligned base of the Republican Party while failing to fully restore her standing with moderate voters who abandoned her over the Kavanaugh vote and other issues.

With Trump returning to the White House in January 2025, Collins is expected to play a prominent role as one of the few Republican senators willing to potentially check the administration on controversial appointments or policies. She has already expressed skepticism about Trump’s potential nomination of Representative Matt Gaetz for attorney general, signaling her willingness to maintain independence from the incoming administration.

This position as a potential counterweight to certain Trump initiatives could help Collins rebuild some support among moderate voters concerned about unchecked presidential power. However, it could simultaneously further erode her standing with Republican base voters who strongly support the president-elect and expect party unity behind his agenda.
The Challenge of Moderation in Modern Politics

Collins’ current predicament reflects the broader challenges facing political moderates in contemporary American politics. The increased polarization of the electorate has made it increasingly difficult for senators and representatives to maintain support across party lines, as voters increasingly prioritize party affiliation over individual candidate qualities or positions.

For much of her career, Collins succeeded by cultivating a persona of thoughtful independence and careful deliberation that appealed to Maine’s tradition of political moderation. This approach allowed her to win substantial support from Democrats and independents while maintaining enough Republican backing to secure comfortable victories.

However, the nationalization of Senate races and the declining number of split-ticket voters have made this balancing act increasingly precarious. High-profile votes on Supreme Court nominations, impeachment, and other partisan flashpoints force senators to choose sides in ways that inevitably alienate portions of a diverse coalition.

The poll showing majority opposition to another Collins term across party lines suggests this challenge has reached a critical point. Even as she has maintained enough support to win reelection, a significant majority of Maine voters now believe it’s time for new representation—a sentiment that crosses traditional partisan boundaries.
Potential Successors and the Path Forward

If Collins were to announce her retirement, both parties would likely see competitive primaries to replace her. On the Republican side, former Governor Paul LePage, current Representatives Jared Golden (if he loses his current race) or Austin Steward, or various state legislators might consider running. The Democratic field could include current and former members of Congress, state officials, or prominent local leaders.

The absence of an incumbent would create a wide-open race that both national parties would target with substantial resources. Maine’s status as a presidential battleground with a history of independent voting would make it a central focus of the 2026 midterm elections, particularly given the limited number of other competitive Senate contests that year.

For Collins herself, the decision about running again involves weighing several factors: her personal desire to continue serving, her assessment of electoral viability, potential legacy considerations, and the changing nature of the Senate as an institution. Having served for what will be 30 years by the 2026 election, she may see value in concluding her career on her own terms rather than risking electoral defeat.
The View from Maine Voters

The poll results indicating a preference for Collins’ retirement across party lines suggests complex and multifaceted voter sentiment. For Democrats, opposition to another Collins term likely stems from partisan considerations and lingering resentment over her Kavanaugh vote and other Trump-era decisions.

For independents, who constitute a substantial portion of Maine’s electorate, the preference for new representation may reflect a desire for younger leadership or frustration with Washington dysfunction more broadly.

Most intriguingly, the majority of Republicans who prefer retirement suggests potential dissatisfaction with Collins from multiple directions—some may view her as insufficiently loyal to Trump and Republican priorities, while others might simply believe that three decades in office is sufficient and new leadership is needed.

Local political observers note that Maine has a strong tradition of lengthy service from its senators—Margaret Chase Smith served for 24 years, William Cohen for 18 years, Olympia Snowe for 18 years, and Collins already for nearly 30 years. This history creates complicated attitudes toward seniority, with voters recognizing the benefits of experienced representation while simultaneously harboring concerns about entrenchment and the need for fresh perspectives.
Conclusion: A Political Crossroads

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll presents Senator Collins with a stark reality as she approaches the final two years of her current term. Despite her intentions to seek reelection, a decisive majority of her constituents—across party lines—believe it’s time for her to step aside.

This sentiment creates both personal and political challenges for the long-serving senator. Her decision will significantly impact not only her own legacy but also the broader battle for control of the Senate in 2026 and the future of moderate Republican politics in an increasingly polarized era.

For Maine voters, the coming months will reveal whether Collins reconsiders her stated intention to run again in light of this polling data or whether she believes she can overcome the apparent preference for retirement through another determined campaign. Having defied polling expectations in 2020, Collins has demonstrated resilience before, but the cross-partisan nature of the sentiment for retirement presents a unique and formidable challenge.

As one of the few remaining moderates in the Senate and a potential check on certain aspects of the incoming Trump administration, Collins’ decision carries implications far beyond Maine’s borders. Her political future remains one of the most consequential open questions in American politics as the nation approaches the 2026 midterm elections and the ne