A new poll from Quantus Insights shows Ken Paxton holding a lead over John Cornyn in the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff in Texas. The survey, conducted March 22–23 among 1,217 likely voters, found Paxton with 48.8% support compared to Cornyn’s 41.3%, while 9.9% of respondents remain undecided.
The poll also suggests strong voter engagement heading into the runoff. Nearly 89% of respondents said they are certain to vote, with another 8.9% indicating they probably will. When recalling the initial March 3 primary, 40% said they supported Cornyn, 38.6% backed Paxton, and 10.6% chose Wesley Hunt, who finished third and did not advance.
On voter sentiment, about 78.7% of respondents described their support for a candidate as firm, while 16.5% said they could still change their minds. When asked which candidate would be more effective, 51.3% selected Paxton, compared to 38.9% for Cornyn. Favorability ratings were mixed for both candidates, with each carrying notable levels of both strong support and strong opposition.
The poll also examined the potential impact of an endorsement from Donald Trump. Most respondents said it would not affect their decision, though 25.8% indicated they would be more likely to support Paxton if endorsed by Trump, compared to 18.4% for Cornyn. Neither candidate secured a majority in the initial primary, sending the race to a runoff scheduled under Texas election rules, with an endorsement from Trump still pending.