Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico has opened a clear lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Democratic Senate primary, according to new polling released Thursday. The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Talarico ahead by nine points among likely Democratic primary voters, leading Crockett 47 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent still undecided.
[read more]
The two candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in November. Cornyn faces his own challenges on the Republican side, where divisions within the GOP have made the race increasingly competitive.
The poll found notable demographic splits in the Democratic primary. Talarico performed strongly among Hispanic and white voters, winning just under 60 percent of support from each group. Crockett dominated among Black Democratic voters, capturing 80 percent of that bloc. Men favored Talarico by a wide 22-point margin, while women were evenly divided between the two candidates.
Talarico, a former middle school teacher, has raised more than $13 million since launching his campaign in September. His statewide profile rose sharply last year after he joined other Texas Democrats in leaving the state to block a Republican-backed redistricting effort.
Crockett entered the Senate race later, announcing her candidacy in December. Her decision reshaped the field, prompting former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, to abandon a 2026 Senate run and instead seek a House seat, clearing the way for a head-to-head primary contest.
On the Republican side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow one-point lead over Cornyn in the GOP primary, 27 percent to 26 percent, with Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16 percent and nearly a third undecided. While Democrats hope to narrow the gap in a state President Trump carried comfortably in 2024, the Cook Political Report currently rates the Senate race as likely Republican.[/read]