NEW: Poll Shocks GOP, Shows Far-Left Dem Neck-And-Neck In Trump District Special Election

Tennessee’s special election in the 7th Congressional District — normally an effortless Republican hold — has tightened unexpectedly, with Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps locked in a razor-thin contest. The seat, previously held by former Rep. Mark Green, has long been a GOP stronghold, making the sudden competitiveness notable as Election Day approaches.

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Wednesday shows Van Epps holding a narrow lead at 48%, with Behn trailing closely at 46% among likely voters and those who have already cast ballots. Roughly 5% remain undecided, leaving room for a late break that could determine the outcome.

When pollsters pressed undecided voters on their leanings, Van Epps edged slightly higher to 49%, while Behn rose to 47%. The slim gap underscores the unusually energized Democratic push in a district historically known for delivering Republicans decisive wins.

The race was triggered by the resignation of Mark Green earlier this year, after the conservative lawmaker left Congress for a private-sector opportunity. The special election is scheduled for Dec. 2, giving both campaigns just days to make their final pitch.

The district stretches from the Kentucky border to Alabama, including portions of north and west Nashville. For decades, it has been a reliably Republican district, but Democrats — boosted by national donors and left-wing activists — have poured significant money and attention into Behn’s candidacy despite her troubling string of recent scandals.

Still, the GOP remains confident. Polling shows that voters’ top concerns overwhelmingly align with Republican messaging: 38% list the economy as their number-one issue, followed by housing affordability (15%) — two areas where voters consistently rate Republican leadership, especially President Trump’s economic record, more favorably than Democratic policies.

Health care and so-called “threats to democracy” tied at 13% each, reflecting Democrats’ continued reliance on fear-based messaging rather than substantive policy solutions.

Spencer Kimball of Emerson College Polling said turnout will be the ultimate deciding factor. Early voters appear to skew heavily Democratic — breaking for Behn 56% to 42% — while those planning to vote on Election Day strongly favor Van Epps 51% to 39%, a dynamic that typically benefits Republicans, who turn out heavily on the final day.

The age breakdown also mirrors national patterns: Behn’s strongest support comes from voters under 40, with 64% backing her, while Van Epps dominates among older voters, rising to 61% support among those 70 and older — a key demographic that traditionally votes at the highest rates.

The poll surveyed 600 likely and early voters between Nov. 22 and 24 and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. With Republicans historically performing well in late-breaking turnout and the district’s conservative lean, Van Epps remains poised to keep the seat red — but the final outcome will hinge on whether GOP voters turn out in force on December 2.