Recent polling in New Jersey has shown Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the governor’s race. The polling results vary, but in most cases, Sherrill holds a narrow lead. Voter opinions of Governor Phil Murphy have played a key role in shaping the race, as those polls show a closer race in regions where his approval is low.
Although recent surveys have not directly tested Murphy’s job approval, a Fox News poll conducted from October 10-14 showed that 47% of voters had a favorable opinion of the two-term governor, while 49% viewed him unfavorably. In that poll, Sherrill led Ciattarelli by 5 points, a lead within the margin of error.
In a few public polls that tested Murphy’s approval, the results suggest that Sherrill’s lead grows when Murphy’s job approval is high. For example, three polls showing Murphy’s approval in the high 40s saw Sherrill leading by larger margins. However, when Murphy’s approval dropped to the mid-30s in two surveys, including one from Ciattarelli’s campaign, the race tightened, with Ciattarelli performing better.
The varying results based on Murphy’s approval rating demonstrate that his job performance could be a decisive factor in the race. As Governor Murphy’s approval fluctuates, so does the outlook for Sherrill’s candidacy, with many voters appearing to view her through the lens of his leadership.
Ciattarelli has worked to link Sherrill to Murphy throughout the campaign, casting himself as the candidate of change. He argues that the state’s problems, particularly with affordability and taxes, are a direct result of Murphy’s policies. In a recent TV ad, Ciattarelli criticized both Sherrill and Murphy, claiming they’ve made New Jersey unaffordable for middle-class families.
Meanwhile, Sherrill has distanced herself from Murphy on issues like rising electricity costs, while still positioning herself as a change agent. In a debate, she assured voters that she would take on Trenton to reduce costs for families, emphasizing her desire to create a more accountable government.
Five major polls released in September have offered insights into both Murphy’s approval and the governor’s race itself. A Fox News survey and a poll from the education group Yes Every Kid both showed Sherrill leading by 7 points, while a Quinnipiac poll from mid-September found her up by 8 points. These results showed her leading with 48-49% of support, within the margin of error for all three polls.
The most notable outlier among these surveys was an Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll, which showed the race tied at 43% for both candidates, within the margin of error of 3.1 points. That poll also had a much lower approval rating for Murphy at 35%, more than 10 points below the others, making it a significant anomaly in the overall polling trend.
Despite the differences in Murphy’s approval across surveys, former President Donald Trump’s approval has remained consistently low in New Jersey, hovering around 41% in recent polls. Sherrill has tried to use this to her advantage, linking Ciattarelli to Trump, who endorsed him. Democrats believe opposition to Trump could drive voter turnout in their favor, giving Sherrill an edge in the race.
In a recent debate, both candidates were asked to grade Murphy’s tenure as governor. Sherrill gave Murphy a B, citing improvements in areas like pension funding and credit rating, but acknowledged that more work needed to be done to reduce costs and increase government accountability. Ciattarelli, on the other hand, gave Murphy an F, blasting his administration’s handling of property taxes, housing costs, and public safety.
Murphy’s approval rating, whatever the number, has been far stronger than that of former Republican Governor Chris Christie after his two terms in office. A Fox News survey from October 2017 showed just 21% of voters viewed Christie favorably, with a staggering 77% viewing him unfavorably—highlighting the contrast between Murphy and his predecessor.[/reaf]
