Data compiled by Michael Pruser of DecisionDesk HQ reveals that Democrats had an in-person advantage of 2,524. However, that edge is much less than the 26,717 in-person voting advantage they held in 2021.

“This was the first of nine days of in-person, early voting. An eternity is still outstanding,” Micah Rasmussen, Director of the Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics at Rider University, explained. “But, if the GOP cannot get any traction on the Dems, then they will go into Election Day with a 275,000-vote hole.

It’s important to note that these figures represent only voter party affiliation and don’t indicate whether residents of the state have decided to support GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli or Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ).

“Of the nearly 550,000 voters who have cast ballots so far, either through mail-in ballots or early in-person voting, 60% were Democrats, 24% were Republicans, and 16% had another affiliation,” The New York Post reported. “By the end of the 2021 race, over 780,000 Garden Staters voted early in-person or via mail-in ballots, 22% of whom were Republicans, 58% were Democrats and 20% had a different party affiliation.”

In the 2021 off-year race, Ciattarelli obliterated expectations by coming within 3 percentage points of then-Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat. His performance at the time was 5 percentage points higher than RealClearPolitics predicted. The latest aggregate from RCP has Sherrill up by 4.1 percentage points with a little less than two weeks left in the campaign.

Political analysts say a key takeaway from the early voting data is that Republicans in the state remain highly motivated in an off-year election, which is a good sign for the party’s prospects.

Some analysts say that if this trend continues, next year’s midterm elections could lean much more toward Republicans than anticipated.