About two months before the 2021 Virginia governor’s race, Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s campaign imploded when he said the quiet part out loud: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”In one sentence, McAuliffe perfectly summed up the Democratic Party’s arrogance—dismissing parents and siding with the education bureaucracy over families. That moment handed Glenn Youngkin the opening he needed, and voters never forgot it.
In the aftermath of McAuliffe’s infamous blunder, Youngkin and Republicans pounced with ruthless precision, framing the race around parental rights at a time when those rights were under siege both in Virginia and nationally. McAuliffe’s stubbornness in interviews only made matters worse—doubling down on elitism rather than walking it back.
By Election Day, what was supposed to be a coronation turned into a humiliation. McAuliffe’s meltdown ended with Youngkin winning in a state Democrats thought they had locked down, just months after the commentariat declared McAuliffe the overwhelming favorite.
Fast forward to today, and the déjà vu is unmistakable. Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s gubernatorial bid in New Jersey looks like it’s circling the drain. With just weeks left before voters choose between Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, the Democrat’s campaign is stumbling badly, weighed down by accusations of nepotism and an authenticity problem she can’t shake.
Much like McAuliffe, Sherrill entered the race as the establishment favorite. And much like McAuliffe, she may end it as the cautionary tale of what happens when Democrats forget they still have to earn the trust of voters.
As earlier reports highlighted, Sherrill’s campaign has been rocked by the resurfacing of a 1992 Naval Academy cheating scandal in which she admitted, “I didn’t turn in some of my classmates, so I didn’t walk.” The revelations cut directly against the squeaky-clean, reformer image she’s tried to project.
The fallout has been immediate. What was once a comfortable race—with Sherrill boasting double-digit polling leads of 10 to 21 points—has now collapsed into a dead heat. For Ciattarelli, it’s a stunning turnaround and proof that when voters see through the carefully scripted façade, Democrats’ “safe” candidates can suddenly look very vulnerable and in a historically blue state.
In addition, Democratic coalitions in New Jersey have grown concerned about Sherrill’s ability to drive turnout among key constituencies the party has traditionally relied on to secure statewide victories, per the AP:
With weeks to go in New Jersey’s high-stakes governor’s race, key members of Democrats’ diverse coalition, including union and Black leaders, have been raising concerns — even when they’re not supposed to.
[…]
Traditionally, organized labor has backed Democrats. That’s not necessarily the case in the Trump era — a potential problem for Democrats in a state with one of the nation’s highest rates of labor union membership. Traditionally, organized labor has backed Democrats. That’s not necessarily the case in the Trump era — a potential problem for Democrats in a state with one of the nation’s highest rates of labor union membership.
In a key sign Democrats are worried, the report noted they were now downplaying expectations, being “quick to note that Democrats have not won three consecutive governor’s elections in New Jersey since 1961.”
To make matters worse for Sherrill, Ciattarelli has received another endorsement that one would typically expect the Democrat in the race to obtain:
The momentum is unmistakable, and it’s not on Sherrill’s side. The real question now is whether Ciattarelli can finally push Republicans over the top in the Garden State after coming within striking distance of Gov. Phil Murphy last time.
One thing’s for sure—this race has gone from a sleepy coronation for Democrats to a genuine toss-up. Watching how it unfolds in the final weeks is going to be very interesting.
